In the coming weeks, most corporate businesses will start preparing their budgets. Some with more extensive operations and networks have in fact started the drafting process directly after the President’s Aug. 16 speech before Parliament.

During this process much time is devoted to predicting the direction of the economy. Will next year be bullish, as we are now experiencing, or will it be affected by the global downturn?

In his presidential address, President has outlined the government’s predictions about next year’s economic prospects. The most important number is the 2009 economic growth target: 6.2 percent. The nominal gross domestic product (GDP) has also been specified at Rp. 5,000 trillion (US$547 billion).

To compare with 2008 figures, first quarter GDP rate of growth was 6.3 percent, second quarter, 6.4 percent. The nominal GDP was Rp. 1,126.8 trillion in the first quarter and Rp. 1,230.9 trillion in the second. Will the uptrend continue until next year, or are there specific reasons to predict otherwise?

Many people are skeptical about our economy. Some of their convictions are justified, especially if we look at the pockets of poverty, especially in urban areas. However, to harp on that issue is unfair to others who are looking for a better estimation of opportunities for their business activities. Aside from being sympathetic to the poor, we have to be more balanced by assessing the situation objectively.

Predicting an economic prospect means judging the movement of the economy, a dynamic process. Successful predictions also account for which economic sectors may have better prospects than others.

Judging from previous performance, the Indonesian economy so far seems to be decoupled from world trends. Despite the economic slowdown in the US and Europe, our economy continues to show resilience.

Indonesia’s previous economic performance reflects the strength of the two drivers of our growth: the population-based economy and the resource-based economy. In the population-based economy, we noted strong growth in manufacturing, such as in automotive and consumer products; property development and construction; and many others.

Apparently the rising domestic fuel prices in May did not significantly erode the increasing income of the population as a whole. Our business entrepreneurs note their expansion plans continue to yield a comfortable return. On a radio talk show I tuned in yesterday, a new and growing company, Bengawan Solo Cafe, has been able to set up 27 outlets in just four years.

Similarly Solaria, a fast-growing local restaurant chain, has expanded to more than one hundred outlets in just a few years. These are just anecdotal examples of such dynamism. The population-based economy is largely a domestic economy.

This palpable growth is not just taking place in urban areas. Many rural areas are enjoy faster development than urban centers.

Meliau, for instance, a village in Sanggau regency, West Kalimantan, used to be a backwater. With the rapid rise in the price of palm oil and increased production, the village now boasts nine motorcycle dealers.

I also believe, once the Pontianak-Tayan highway is completed, the West Kalimantan hinterland will see much faster growth and better living standards for its people. This last example reflects the strength of the second driver of the economic growth: the resource-based economy.

Taking the motorcycle dealers as an example, they will eventually drive demand at the factories in Java, thus promoting manufacturing sector growth. This shows how a sector which has received a strong pull from the population-based economy at the same time enjoyed another pull from the multiplier effects of the resource-based economy. I am sure this trend will continue.

In forecasting the 2009 outlook, I am fully aware many institutions will make conservative predictions. Unsurprisingly, the President himself predicted a growth rate of just 6.2 percent. Since the growth rate will most probably reach 6.4 or 6.5 percent for all of 2008, can we infer the President is predicting a downturn in our economy?

It’s always good to hear we can boast about our performance if we attain a growth rate higher than the target. However, setting the bar too low can also be self-fulfilling. Businesspeople will use the government’s figure as their reference, which means they may set their companies’ targets too low.

Based on my observations visiting companies in Java and elsewhere, I can infer optimism in the field still abounds. In fact, many business owners were puzzled this year when their companies’ performance far exceeded their targets. Therefore, it will be interesting to see whether these same people will repeat that mistake another year running.

From these observations, and also my own rough sectoral calculations, I am optimistic the outlook for 2009 may be slightly better than predicted by the government. Though the government-predicted growth rate for 2009 is 6.2 percent, there is a strong possibility the growth rate will attain between 6.4 and 6.7 percent.

Moreover, the nominal GDP will deviate significantly. The first and second quarters of 2008 already produced a nominal GDP of Rp. 2,357.7 trillion. Based on previous experience, the nominal GDP will continue to grow in the third and fourth quarters.

Thus, a nominal GDP of Rp. 4,800 trillion is within reach for the economy this year. This figure is 21 percent higher than in 2007. Still, judging from the rate of nominal growth in first and second quarters at 22.5 percent and 27.9 percent respectively, a rate of growth for the whole year of 21 percent remains a conservative prediction.

Therefore, the government’s forecast of a nominal GDP of Rp. 5,000 trillion in 2009 will be far too low compared to what can be achieved for 2008. My own prediction for 2009 is the Indonesian nominal GDP may reach Rp. 5,500-5,700 trillion.

Thatnumber will ensure a much lower debt-to-GDP ratio, an important number for the government.

I am optimistic about the Indonesian economy going forward. Such a sizable nominal GDP would translate into about US$610 billion, far higher than the $419 billion which Goldman Sachs predicted Indonesia ought to have by 2010, to be well on its way to ranking seventh among world economic powers by 2050.

The writer is rector at Asian Banking Finance and Informatics (ABFI) Institute Perbanas.

Jakarta – KH Abdurrahman Wahid alias Gus Dur ternyata dipercaya Soeharto untuk segera menyalurkan kredit murah senilai Rp 270 miliar. Gus Dur mengaku dana dari mantan penguasa orde baru itu akan diterimanya dalam waktu tiga bulan mendatang.

“Pak Harto menyediakan Rp 270 miliar untuk kredit murah dan kredit murah itu dipercayakan kepada saya,” ungkap Gus Dur di sela-sela acara pidato politiknya di kediaman Bondan Gunawan Jl Cempaka Putih, Jakarta Pusat, Kamis malam (14/8/2008).

Menurut Gus Dur kredit tersebut diberikan untuk mengurangi modal asing di Indonesia. Diharapkan perekonomian Indonesia bisa mandiri dan berkembang.

“Kredit murah ini untuk mengurangi modal asing yang ada di indonesia agar ekonomi kita bisa mandiri tidak tergantung kepada siapapun. Harus melepaskan diri dari AS, ke depannya kita inginkan ekonomi yang sehat dan berkembang sehingga indonesia bisa berdiri sendiri,” ujar mantan presiden RI ini.

Gus Dur menjelaskan bunga kredit murah ini hanya 5% pertahunnya. “Itu yang sudah sangat murah,” jelasnya.

Gus Dur juga mengaku sebelum meninggal, Soeharto menitipkan pesan-pesan khusus padanya. Gus Dur menilai memang Soeharto melakukan korupsi yang tidak ternilai. tapi ada 3 sumbangan yang tidak ternilai harganya. Yang pertama adalah memperhitungkan segala sesuatunya, yang kedua adalah perencanaan.

“Yang ketiga, akhirnya Pak Harto diukur mau berpikir untuk rakyat,” tandasnya.(rdf/ddt)

“Anggaran dari bank kami perkirakan dapat menutup sekitar 60-70 persen biaya investasi ini,” kata Direktur Keuangan Petroservices Didit A. Ratam dalam paparan publik hari ini. Saat ini, ia menambahkan, sudah ada empat buah bank asing yang berminat memberi pinjaman.

Dua di antara empat bank itu adalah bank lokal, sedangkan dua lainnya bank asing. Namun ia menolak menyebutkan nama-nama bank tersebut. Dia hanya berujar, pembicaraan dengan para calon kreditur dimulai kuartal pertama tahun ini dan masih berlanjut.

Akan halnya penjualan saham, kata Didit, akan dilakukan 26 Agustus. Saat itu tiba, Petroservices berencana melepas 30 persen sahamnya atau setara dengan 1,782 miliar lembar ke publik. Dengan kisaran harga yang ditawarkan Rp 180-Rp 220 per lembar, perusahaan mentargetkan perolehan dana Rp 320,76 miliar – Rp 392,4 miliar.

“Sekitar 90 persen uangnya dipakai untuk investasi dan sisanya untuk modal kerja,” kata Presiden Direktur Petroservices Faiz Shahab di acara yang sama.

Berbicara lagi, Didit memperkirakan uang dari penjualan saham dan pinjaman bank itu akan mampu menutupi biaya investasi sebesar Rp 3 triliun. Ia mengamati minat perbankan dan investor lain sangat tinggi untuk membiayai proyek ini.

Bisnis ini, kata dia, menarik karena menggunakan gas sebagai pengganti solar bisa mendatangkan penghematan yang besar. Akan tetapi, ia tidak menutup kemungkinan perusahaan akan memakai instrumen keuangan lain bila ternyata penjualam saham dan pinjaman bank tidak cukup.

A federal judge has awarded almost $1 million in back wages to two Indonesian housekeepers who were virtually enslaved by a wealthy Long Island couple.

Judge Arthur Spatt said Friday the maids were entitled to double their unpaid wages because they were abused while working around the clock for Varsha and Mahender Sabhnani.

The victims says they were beaten, slashed with knives and forced to take freezing showers for such misdeeds as sleeping late.

The judge awarded the houskeepers a total of more than $936,000 – at least $700,000 more than the Sabhnanis’ lawyers considered reasonable.

The Muttowntown couple was convicted in December of charges including forced labor. Varsha Sabhnani has been sentenced to 11 years in prison, her husband to 3 years and 4 months. (***)

Under the program, Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII) will disburse Rp 213.8 billion in loans to 28 rural banks, Bank Sinar Mas Rp 190 billion to three rural banks, Bank Danamon Rp 174.75 billion to 29 rural banks, Bank Mandiri Rp 111.6 billion to three rural banks and Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) Rp 75 billion to three rural banks.

HSBC, the only foreign bank involved in the program, will loan Rp 675 million to three rural banks.

“The linkage program is a strategy to boost intermediaries by empowering micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to create equal economic development,” Bank Indonesia Governor Boediono (right) said in an opening speech.

He was seen chatting with BNI president director Gatot Suwondo (left).

According to Bank Indonesia, 38 national banks have channeled Rp 5.96 trillion in loans to about 1,300 rural banks as of June, up from Rp 4.97 trillion as of December last year.

“Banks must support MSMEs, but maintain healthy bank principles,” Boediono said.

Through the linkage program, the national banks can disburse loans to MSMEs with the help of rural banks, while rural banks, which are lacking in funding access, can also secure loans from national banks. — JP/Aditya Suharmoko

The economy has grown by 6.2 percent in the first half of the year on the back of strong consumption and investment, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said Wednesday.

“The growth in the first semester was boosted by private consumption, investment and exports. High import of capital goods indicates investment will increase in the third and fourth quarters,” Mulyani told a press conference.

According to the ministry, the economy in the second quarter grew by 6.1 percent with private consumption growing by 5.3 percent, investment by 10.5 percent and exports by 12 percent.

Wednesday’s presentation was a prelude to the Central Statistics Agency’s (BPS) upcoming announcement of the official figure on economic growth.

Sri Mulyani said robust car and motorcycle sales contributed greatly to the high private consumption, which were supported by rising bank lending.

In the first semester, car and motorcycle sales grew by 40 percent from a year earlier, while bank lending recorded a growth of some 32 percent, far above the central bank’s growth estimate of between 22 percent and 24 percent.

Sri Mulyani also said the country recorded above-expectation revenue in the first semester with tax collection growing by 50.3 percent from the previous year.

The ministry’s directorate general of taxation, she said, obtained Rp 307.5 trillion (US$33.40 billion), with non-oil-and-gas income tax and value added tax contributing the most.

Non-oil-and-gas income tax grew by 39.4 percent from a year earlier, while value added tax grew by 48.9 percent.

“Income tax of the manufacturing industry — food and beverages industry, chemical industry and electronic industry — rose by 37.5 percent,” Sri Mulyani said.

“Value added tax of the trade, hotel and restaurant sector rose 24.4 percent, supported by wholesalers and retailers. It proves that the micro sector is moving.”

On the spending front, despite the revised 2008 state budget being wrapped up in April, the government still managed to spend 36.7 percent of state expenditure, from the total of Rp 989.5 trillion.

A third of the spending went to subsidies, with a fuel subsidy of Rp 60.5 trillion, an electricity subsidy of Rp 26.4 trillion and non-energy subsidies of Rp 4.8 trillion.